Perceptions of Climate Science

The main issues i have found pertaining to climate science are the perception of individuals actually studying it and the idea that in order to change something people need to be 100% certain (or at least 95%). This makes for an incredibly easy excuse for anyone that would benefit from seeing progress in climate science slowed or halted. By simply questioning the qualifications or attacking the character or political stance of a scientist, global leaders in politics and big business can nullify any point being made. Due to the widespread acceptance of a 95% confidence interval as the determining factor behind legitimizing scientific research it makes it impossible to actually make progress in the field. The issue here is that as of now its just to early to say we're 95% confident in anything having to do with global temperature rise. However, by the time that we can it will be far too late to change the course we've set ourselves on. If there is any hope to change in the future, first perceptions of the general public must be changed and second, perhaps more important interpretations of scientific data's relevance must change as well. A presidential candidate Ben Carson publicly stated that he though climate change is irrelevant. Not that it didn't exist, which could be stomach able, but that he looked at the data, it wasn't conclusive and therefore, irrelevant because the Earth is constantly warming and cooling. These types of things in the news only perpetuate the seeding of doubt in the American people. Misperceptions and misinterpretations of data blocked the path for progress.

Tick Tock.

After reading Bill McKibben's, Climate Fight Won't Wait for Paris article, it struck me that the course humankind has put themselves on is similar to a train running out of track. Imagine if you will the Earth is in fact a giant passenger train with its cars being the different countries of the world. As is the case with most passenger trains this would have a few cars that are much nicer than others. In order to simplify this analogy I'll break the cars into first class and coach. The first class cars (in the front of the train) would obviously be inhabited by the wealthiest countries. Now think of the conductor as capitalism and big business as he controls the speed at which this train is headed. For this analogy to work we'll say that the train is solar powered (ironic I know) and that as population grew on this train over the years it required more and more power and therefore more and more solar panels. Eventually these panels end up blocking the windows of all the cars and no one can see the outside world any longer. However, the conductor says "not to fear, there is no evidence that this track we have been on for so many years will end!" However, a few people on the train realize that there is also no evidence that the track will keep going and decide to see if they can find a way to check, just to make sure. So someone decides to take a solar panel off of one of the windows so they can look to see where the train might be headed. When they do, they see an ocean straight in front of the train. From this distance its barely visible at all just a thin line of blue meeting a lighter blue sky. However, they realize that the track doesn't look like its going to bend. They go inside and tell everyone they can, including the conductor. The conductor says to them "there is no conclusive evidence that the track doesn't bend before it reaches the ocean!" The people inhabiting the first class cars are eager to believe him because they're afraid of no longer being able to live a life of luxury if the train comes to a stop. Conversely the coach cars wouldn't be so worried about change because they're lives would change must less. In fact they start to listen and even begin to look for themselves out of the window that has been uncovered at what is now clearly their impending doom. By now the train has gotten even closer to the ocean. They try and tell the conductor and get the same response as before. This happens over and over again. Why does the conductor keep doing this? My answer: He's close to the first class and far removed from the coach. Which car do you think feeds him when he's hungry, talk to him while he eats, and listen while he vents his anger and frustration about all the coach passengers coming and complaining to him? He's just trying to do his job in his eyes of course. The first class and conductor perpetuate each others ideas and eventually depend on each other to keep the train moving as it gets ever closer to the massive body of water that becomes more and more visible. Eventually the ocean will be right before the conductors eyes and the unfinished track will be exposed. Guess what? The train can no longer be stopped before the end of the track. It simply weighs too much and has too much momentum even if the conductor slammed on the breaks now the train will still go off. How many cars will? No one knows. However, one thing is for certain; the longer the conductor waits to start stopping this massive locomotive the greater the damage will be when the track runs out. Pressure has to be put on first class and that damn conductor. Only then will things change, but the clock is ticking...